Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump and Iran dialogue leads to a drop in oil prices; Tesla Terafab launches; NVIDIA GTC conference is about to be held (March 16, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Powell Responds Firmly to Trump Administration Investigation, Will Remain a Governor Until 2028

• Powell sent a strong signal to the Trump administration through his lawyer, stating that if the criminal investigation into excessive spending continues, he will remain a governor until 2028 after his term as chairman ends.
• The court has withdrawn the subpoena and criticized the government for harassment, but the Justice Department insists on appealing, creating an unprecedented situation that blocks the Senate nomination of successor Warsh.
• This confrontation exacerbates the struggle for the independence of the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining market confidence in the stability of monetary policy and amplifying economic uncertainty.

International Commodities

Trump Claims Dialogue with Iran, International Oil Prices Rise Then Fall

• Trump stated that he is in dialogue with Iran and discussing matters related to the Strait of Hormuz with the G7, but Iran is not yet ready, and the willingness to reach an agreement is uncertain.
• Tensions in the Middle East continue, with the US and Israel bombing Iran's oil export hub, Kharg Island, while Iran claims to strike US and Israeli targets; the Iranian foreign minister stated that the end of the war requires no recurrence and compensation conditions; oil prices rose over 3% before retreating.
• Dialogue signals may alleviate supply concerns, but ongoing hostile actions could maintain high volatility, and global energy market stability requires the reopening of the strait.
• US officials stated that the Trump administration plans to announce as early as this week that several countries have agreed to form a coalition to provide escort for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, discussions are still ongoing about whether these actions should be initiated before or after the end of Iran's hostile actions.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Quoted at $5024.79/ounce, up 0.05%, stabilizing in the short term, supported by safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
• Spot Silver: Quoted at $81.19/ounce, up 0.81%, characterized by accelerated rebound, influenced by high volatility in silver prices and expectations of industrial recovery.
• WIT Crude Oil: Quoted at $97.94/barrel, down 0.79%, driven by signals of reserve releases alleviating supply disruption concerns.
• Brent Crude Oil: Quoted at $103.09/barrel, down 0.05%, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks, but expectations of coalition escorts limit the increase.
• US Dollar Index: Quoted at 100.19, down 0.17%, driven by the retreat in oil prices weakening safe-haven buying, but expectations of Federal Reserve policy provide support.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: 24H increase of 2.14%, continuing to rise, breaking through $72,400, driven by continuous inflows into spot ETFs and a rebound in global risk appetite.
• ETH: 24H increase of 4.17%, quoted at $2172, characterized by a strong rebound, driven by the overall market and institutional capital inflows.
• Total Market Cap of Cryptocurrencies: 24H increase of 1.9%, total market cap of $2.55 trillion, driven by a broad rise in major cryptocurrencies and increased safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainty.
• Market Liquidation Situation: 24H total liquidation amount of $191 million, with long positions liquidating $47 million and short positions liquidating $144 million.

• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $72,400, with a large concentration of long liquidation leverage in the $70,500--$72,000 range; if the price falls back to this area, it may trigger concentrated long liquidations and exacerbate downward volatility. There is a significant short liquidation concentration around $73,000--$74,500; if BTC continues to rise and breaks through this range, it may trigger short squeezes and push prices further up.
• Spot ETF Net Inflows/Outflows: Last Friday, BTC spot ETF net inflow of $180 million; ETH spot ETF net inflow of $27 million.
• BTC Spot Net Inflows/Outflows: BTC saw an inflow of $1.543 billion yesterday, outflow of $1.516 billion, net inflow of $26 million.

US Stock Index Performance

As of last Friday's close:

• Dow Jones: Closed at 46,558.47 points, down 0.26%, continuing to decline, influenced by geopolitical risks and oil price fluctuations.
• S&P 500: Closed at 6,632.19 points, down 0.61%, characterized by increased volatility, dragged down by the technology and energy sectors.
• Nasdaq: Closed at 22,105.36 points, down 0.93%, driven by widespread declines in tech stocks, with interest rate expectation adjustments amplifying pressure.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): Down 1.45%, closed at $248.50, affected by concerns over global supply chain disruptions and potential impacts of rising oil prices on consumer electronics demand.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 1.58%, closed at $395.54, with doubts over AI investment spending resonating with increased market risks, leading to valuation adjustments.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): Down 1.59%, closed at $180.28, with rising uncertainty over AI chip demand, compounded by geopolitical tensions pushing up supply chain costs.
• Amazon (AMZN): Down 0.89%, closed at $207.67, with e-commerce and cloud businesses facing high inflation expectations and competitive pressures slowing growth.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): Down 0.58%, closed at $301.46, with regulatory concerns easing but AI progress slowing, dragging down the overall market rotation.
• Meta (META): Down 3.83%, closed at $614.10, with high capital expenditures and doubts over AI model efficiency raising investor concerns.
• Tesla (TSLA): Down 0.88%, closed at $391.54, with increased competition in the electric vehicle market and oil price fluctuations suppressing the speed of demand transformation. The overall rise and fall are primarily due to the market rotating away from overvalued tech stocks at the beginning of 2026, with geopolitical risks (such as the Iran conflict) amplifying oil price volatility and AI spending concerns, although some AI leaders received support.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy Sector up 0.41%

• Representative stocks: Exxon Mobil up 1.69%, Chevron up 0.8%.
• Driving factors: Middle East conflicts pushing up oil prices, highlighting energy security themes, with institutions optimistic about strategic layouts.

Basic Materials Sector down 2.96%

• Representative stocks: Freeport-McMoRan down 3.5%, Alcoa down 3.35%.
• Driving factors: Increased concerns over global supply chain disruptions and rising demand uncertainty.

Technology Sector down 1.18%

• Representative stocks: NVIDIA down 1.59%, AMD down 2.2%.
• Driving factors: Uncertainty over chip export controls and interest rate expectation adjustments suppressing valuations.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Tesla - Terafab Project Launch

Event Overview: Tesla plans to "manufacture chips," with Musk officially announcing that the Terafab project will launch within months, aiming to produce AI chips in-house to reduce reliance on external suppliers. Previously affected by chip shortages, this project integrates the supply chain and enhances the competitiveness of electric vehicles and autonomous driving technology. Market Interpretation: Institutional views suggest that this move strengthens Tesla's vertical integration advantage, with Goldman Sachs stating it could reduce costs by 20%, but initial investment pressures should be monitored; Morgan Stanley is optimistic about long-term growth potential, raising the target price to $450. Investment Insight: Tech stocks may benefit from supply chain optimization in the short term; focus on project progress; long-term outlook is positive for electric vehicle market share expansion.

2. Trump - Dialogue with Iran

Event Overview: Trump stated he is in dialogue with Iranian representatives and discussing matters related to the Strait of Hormuz with seven countries, but mentioned that Iran is not yet ready, and the willingness to reach an agreement is uncertain; the backdrop is Middle Eastern tensions, with the US and Israel bombing Iranian oil hubs, and Iran stating that the end of the war requires no recurrence and compensation. This dialogue aims to alleviate the conflict. Market Interpretation: Analysts view this as a signal of diplomatic easing, with Bank of America stating it could push oil prices down by 3-5%, but actual progress needs to be observed; Goldman Sachs warns that if negotiations fail, oil prices could exceed 2008 peaks. Investment Insight: Energy stocks may see enhanced expectations for stability in the short term; monitor developments in Strait navigation to adjust positions.

3. Powell - Threatening the Trump Administration

Event Overview: Powell made a firm statement to the Trump administration through his lawyer, stating that if the investigation into excessive spending continues, he will remain a Federal Reserve governor until 2028; the court has withdrawn the subpoena and criticized harassment, but the Justice Department is appealing, highlighting the conflict over the independence of the Federal Reserve. Market Interpretation: Institutional views suggest that this move maintains central bank autonomy, with JPMorgan stating it may delay policy adjustments and amplify market volatility; Citigroup is concerned about its impact on the interest rate cut path. Investment Insight: Increased volatility in the bond market; focus on signals from Federal Reserve meetings.

4. US - Formation of Hormuz Escort Alliance

Event Overview: According to the Wall Street Journal, US officials stated that the Trump administration plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form an escort alliance for the Strait of Hormuz, but the timing for initiating actions is pending, requiring the cessation of hostile actions; the White House declined to comment, and many countries are hesitant to participate due to risks. Market Interpretation: Analysts believe this alliance could secure energy supplies, with BofA stating that if successful, oil prices could fall by 10%; however, delays could exacerbate short-term volatility. Investment Insight: High uncertainty in the commodity market; diversifying allocations to safe-haven assets is advisable.

5. IEA - Oil Reserve Release

Event Overview: The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that record oil reserves will be immediately released to the Asian market to fill the supply gap caused by Middle Eastern conflicts; Europe and the Americas will need to release reserves by the end of March, with the director stating that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is necessary to restore stable supply. Market Interpretation: Institutional views suggest that this move will support Asian demand in the short term, with Goldman Sachs expecting oil prices to remain high, but releasing 300-400 million barrels could alleviate disruption pressures. Investment Insight: Energy stocks may benefit from supply buffering; monitor the progress of releases.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. An article in the Financial Times points out that this week will welcome a "Super Central Bank Week." Although no unexpected surprises are anticipated from these central banks' interest rate decisions, the policy guidance accompanying the announcements will be closely monitored due to the ongoing Middle Eastern conflict. The four major central banks—the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan—will successively announce decisions on Thursday, Beijing time.

2. Strategy currently holds 738,731 bitcoins; to reach 1 million by the end of 2026, an additional 261,269 bitcoins need to be purchased. Based on approximately 42 weeks remaining, an average of about 6,158 bitcoins needs to be bought each week. Estimating at an average price of $85,000, the total investment would be about $22.2 billion.

3. In the past 24 hours, ShapeShift founder Erik Voorhees spent 29.44 million USDT to buy 13,986 ETH. Over the past six days, he has accumulated a total of 21,293 ETH at an average price of $2,091, with a total expenditure of 44.52 million USDT.

4. Argentine media El Destape reported that a previously undisclosed document extracted from intermediary Mauricio Novelli's phone shows that a payment agreement totaling $5 million was proposed for the cryptocurrency LIBRA project, with most of the funds reportedly related to support from Argentine President Javier Milei.

5. On-chain data indicates that Venus Protocol appears to have suffered a flash loan attack. The attacker's address (0x1a35…6231) has acquired 20 BTC, 1.5 million CAKE, and 200 BNB, totaling over $3.7 million. This address has used a large amount of THE as collateral to lend out Cake, BTCB, and BNB, with tens of millions of THE being continuously liquidated.

6. Wintermute founder: The goal is more important than the price, and he will continue to hold ETH long-term. He stated, "I absolutely believe that at least someone should try to achieve this goal on a macro level, rather than just pursuing financial applications."

7. DeFi researcher Ingas posted on platform X, stating that BlackRock's separate launch of a staking Ethereum ETF, rather than adding staking features to the existing Ethereum ETF ETHA, is because staking increases the risk of punitive impairment, which some investors want to avoid.

8. Data: Tokens such as ZRO, BARD, and RIVER will see significant unlocks this week, with ZRO unlocking worth approximately $51.8 million.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

March 18, 22:30, the US will announce the EIA crude oil inventory for the week; the EIA strategic petroleum reserve for the week;

March 19, 02:00, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision for March 18 (upper limit);

March 19, 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 4.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment bank analysts hold a cautious attitude towards the market performance over the past 24 hours. Goldman Sachs pointed out that institutional selling of US stocks has reached historical levels, and the market is at a critical point of explosion; if geopolitical tensions do not ease, it could trigger a crash; conversely, a large number of short positions covering could drive a 2-3% rebound. Morgan Stanley emphasizes that energy security has become the primary investment theme, recommending allocations to beneficiary stocks. In precious metals, Citigroup is optimistic about gold holding steady at $5,000, supported by central bank purchases and safe-haven demand; silver prices could rise to $58. Views on crude oil are divided, with Goldman Sachs warning that if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists, Brent could exceed 2008 peaks, but expects a decline to $71 in the fourth quarter. In forex, the dollar is strong in the short term, but the overall outlook is bearish. In cryptocurrencies, Bank of America believes Bitcoin relies on gold dynamics; if precious metals weaken, it may test $60,000, otherwise it will return to highs; overall risk sentiment improvement boosts ETF inflows.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.