After Trump announced a temporary easing of the conflict with Iran, Bitcoin briefly rose by 4%, but derivative data shows insufficient bullish confidence

According to Cointelegraph, after Trump announced a temporary easing of tensions with Iran and sought negotiations, Bitcoin briefly rose by 4%, while oil prices subsequently fell by 14% to $85 per barrel for WTI, and the S&P 500 index rose by 3%. However, Bitcoin derivatives data continues to send skeptical signals, with the market lacking confidence in the $68,000 support level.

In the futures market, the annualized premium for 2-month Bitcoin futures was reported at 2% on Monday, below the typical range of 4% to 8% corresponding to longer settlement periods under neutral conditions, indicating insufficient demand for long leverage. This lack of confidence has persisted over the past month, even though prices had briefly rebounded to around $76,000 earlier.

In the options market, the $80,000 call option expiring on April 24 on the Deribit trading platform was priced at 0.017 BTC (approximately $1,207), and under the conditions of a 31-day expiration and 48% implied volatility, the market priced the probability of Bitcoin rising to $80,000 during this period at only 20%. Such a low expectation for a 13% increase within the month is rare in the typically optimistic crypto market.

The Federal Reserve's stance on pausing interest rate cuts makes it difficult for investors to exit fixed income positions, while traders are likely to remain cautious until oil prices fall back to $75 or below. Unless additional catalysts emerge, the likelihood of Bitcoin traders turning bullish is low, especially in the context of ongoing lack of conviction in on-chain data and derivatives indicators.