Ruisui lowers Gemini's target stock price by over 50% due to weak trading dragging down core business growth

According to The Block, Mizuho Financial Group has lowered the target stock price for cryptocurrency exchange Gemini from $26 to $12, a decrease of over 50%, citing that weak trading activity is expected to drag down its core business, despite continued growth in its credit card business.

Analysts noted in the report that the weak outlook for cryptocurrency asset prices and declining platform trading volume may limit recent revenue growth. Mizuho has reduced its revenue expectations for Gemini in 2027 by about 24%, reflecting the overall weak trading environment in the cryptocurrency market.

At the same time, the company's revenue structure continues to shift, with service revenue, including credit card and interest income, expected to account for 43% of total revenue, up from the previous expectation of 36%. The Gemini credit card is projected to generate over $1.2 billion in transaction volume in 2025, resulting in approximately $33 million in net income. Additionally, Gemini has laid off about 30% of its workforce and exited several international markets, expecting to reduce expenses by about 12% by 2027.