Bitget UEX Daily Report | The U.S. abandons bombing of Iraqi energy facilities; oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz resumes; storage chip prices soar amid expectations of supply and demand imbalance (March 24, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Federal Reserve Governor Miran insists on four rate cuts this year

• Miran pointed out that the short-term oil price fluctuations caused by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East are not enough to change the path of four rate cuts this year. Last week, he cast a dissenting vote in support of an immediate 25 basis point cut.
• Goolsbee added that the new round of inflation shocks triggered by the situation in the Middle East has made the situation severe, with the job market close to full employment while inflation remains far above the 2% target.
• Market impact: Rate cut expectations may face short-term adjustments, but the baseline path remains unchanged. If oil prices remain high, it will prioritize increasing inflation risks, and bond market yields may be under pressure.

International Commodities

Oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz resumes, very low probability of SPR release

• The first giant oil tanker loaded with 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude oil successfully passed through the strait, marking the first successful case after the conflict.
• U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that the Strategic Petroleum Reserve may be released again, but the probability is very low. Currently, a daily release of 1 to 1.5 million barrels has been initiated, which can be expanded to 3 million barrels.
• Market impact: Supply concerns are alleviated in the short term. Although oil prices remain high, they have not triggered demand destruction. Consumers may need to endure high pressure for several weeks, and the easing of geopolitical risks will benefit risk assets.

Macroeconomic Policy

U.S.-Iran negotiations present a "Rashomon" situation, White House remains cautious

• Trump stated that Iran "really wants to reach an agreement," and the two sides may reach an agreement in five days or even sooner, with the key points of the agreement already formed.
• White House Press Secretary Levitt emphasized that the situation is still changing and will not confirm through the media whether negotiations will take place this week. Other reports indicate that the U.S. is considering targeting the Iranian Speaker, but the Iranian side denies this.
• Market impact: Optimistic expectations boost risk appetite, leading to a significant rise in U.S. stocks, but sustainability depends on actual progress, which may exacerbate volatility in the short term.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: After a significant pullback to $4,098 yesterday, it stabilized and slightly rebounded to $4,369 today, down 0.79% in 24H. The repair of risk appetite and oil price fluctuations resonated to escape panic selling, showing signs of bottoming out in the short term but still suppressed by the dollar and inflation expectations.
• Spot Silver: Followed gold's decline yesterday, dropping to $60.99 before rebounding to $67.93, down 1.54% in 24H. The gold-silver ratio continues to compress to about 61:1, showing stronger resilience driven by both industrial demand and safe-haven attributes, with industrial metal properties supporting its rebound elasticity better than gold.
• WTI Crude Oil: Plummeted over 9% yesterday, today showing a technical rebound to $90.47, up about 2.4% in 24H. After digesting the news of geopolitical easing, a short-term oversold rebound occurred, but supply recovery and demand uncertainty still pose significant upward pressure, with driving factors shifting to inventory data and actual passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent Crude Oil: Fell 10% from a high yesterday, today rebounding to $97.76, up about 1.79% in 24H. Maintaining high-level fluctuations, supply recovery is evident, but geopolitical risk premiums have not fully dissipated, with clear signs of price topping in the $100-102 range, driven mainly by developments in the Middle East.
• Dollar Index: Slightly rebounded to 99.359 today, up about 0.23% in 24H. After hitting a low of 99.09-99.17 yesterday, it rebounded. Risk assets are under initial pressure as they warm up, but inflation expectations and uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's path provide support, stabilizing above the 99 mark in the short term.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Up about 4.3% to $70,600 in 24H, driven by easing geopolitical risks and a rebound in U.S. stock risk appetite, rapidly rising from the previous day's low of around $67,600, escaping the consolidation bottoming pattern and turning into strong short-term upward momentum, focusing on resistance at $71,000-$72,000.
• ETH: Up about 4.7% to $2,140 in 24H, following the overall market rebound but with slightly less elasticity, focusing on the breakthrough of the $2,200 round number in the short term.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Up about 3.6% to approximately $2.50 trillion in 24H, with BTC dominance around 58.4-58.6% (slight fluctuations or minor increases), driven by a comprehensive recovery in risk sentiment, altcoins follow suit but overall remain dominated by BTC, with increased trading volume reflecting capital inflow.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of about $661 million in 24H, with long positions liquidated at $291 million and short positions at $371 million. After the short squeeze the previous day, today's long positions saw profit-taking and liquidation coexist, with the overall scale reflecting increased leverage compared to the previous day.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $70,658, with the lower long liquidation zone largely digested, while the upper range of $71,500-$74,000 shows significantly denser short liquidation leverage, indicating that the market is more easily "squeezed upward" in the short term. The overall liquidation distribution shows a structure of upper short pressure > lower long pressure. If prices continue to fluctuate, they are more likely to first test the upper liquidity dense area. From the cumulative liquidation curve, the total leverage of short liquidations is significantly higher than that of long liquidations, indicating a slightly bullish overall structure (short squeeze tendency), but there is a high leverage concentration area near $72,000, which may amplify short-term volatility.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $640 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a net outflow of -$160 million yesterday.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Inflow of $3.18 billion yesterday, outflow of $3.054 billion, net inflow of $126 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 1.38% to 46,208.47 points, rebounding for two consecutive days.
• S&P 500: Up 1.15% to 6,581 points, driven by a short squeeze.
• Nasdaq: Up 1.38% to 21,946.76 points, driven by technology and AI sectors.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA (NVDA): Up about 1.7% to $177.66 (with significant intraday fluctuations). Factors for rise and fall: Easing geopolitical tensions boost overall risk appetite, strong demand for AI infrastructure (optimistic outlook for Blackwell series orders), but caution is needed for potential "false breakout" risks from short-term weakening of cyclical indicators. Short-term rebounds are mainly driven by macro sentiment repair rather than single company events.
• Apple (AAPL): Up about 1.41% to $251.49. Factors for rise and fall: WWDC 2026 is scheduled (June 8-12) and clearly previews "significant progress in artificial intelligence," stimulating market optimism about AI integration and upgrade cycles in the iOS ecosystem; also benefiting from record iPhone upgrade rates and strong trends in ecosystem switching, Morgan Stanley and other institutions believe Apple may become the only major smartphone brand to gain market share in 2026. Easing geopolitical tensions further amplify positive catalysts.
• Google-A (GOOGL): Up about 0.35% to $302.65. Factors for rise and fall: Following the overall recovery of the technology sector, progress in the Gemini model and growth in cloud AI services provide support, but the increase is relatively moderate, mainly driven by macro risk appetite repair rather than independent events; Google's cloud business remains resilient in the AI competitive landscape.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Up about 0.3% to $383.5. Factors for rise and fall: Steady demand for Azure cloud and AI services (continuous increase in enterprise adoption rates), but intraday fluctuations are dominated by overall market sentiment; as a representative of the "software tax" in AI, long-term pricing power is recognized, and short-term rebounds mainly benefit from collective short squeezes in tech stocks and reduced geopolitical risks.
• Amazon (AMZN): Up about 2.32% to $210.14. Factors for rise and fall: Accelerated AI spending in AWS cloud business (hyperscaler capex continues to expand), coupled with resilience in e-commerce and advertising revenue; under the theme of AI infrastructure, Amazon benefits significantly as a "cloud + AI" dual driver, with leading gains reflecting market pricing for accelerated AWS growth.
• TSMC (TSM): Up about 2.8% to $338.45. Factors for rise and fall: Strong demand for advanced processes (high production of AI-related chips like HBM4), benefiting directly from the AI factory wave as a core foundry for NVDA/AVGO; analysts expect revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 to significantly exceed that of Amazon, and easing geopolitical tensions further reduce semiconductor supply chain risks, boosting valuation recovery.
• Meta (META): Up about 1.75% to $604.47. Factors for rise and fall: Progress in AI application implementation (advertising + metaverse efficiency improvements), resource reallocation strategy recognized by Goldman Sachs (shifting from inefficiency to high-value AI computing power); macro risk appetite recovery amplifies rebounds, but the core remains the continuation of the AI narrative and expectations for EPS upgrades.
• Broadcom (AVGO): Up about 4.1% to around $323.84. Factors for rise and fall: Explosive demand for custom AI chips and network interconnect (upgrades in AI infrastructure like optical interconnect), benefiting directly from hyperscaler order growth as a key link in "AI plumbing"; the market views it as a more stable "toll booth" target in the AI cycle, with leading gains reflecting expectations for content growth and gross margin leverage.

Optimistic statements regarding the U.S.-Iran agreement significantly reduce geopolitical risk premiums, driving a comprehensive rebound in risk assets and short squeeze effects; the theme of investment in AI infrastructure (chips, cloud, interconnect) remains the main line of the sector, with storage/optical/advanced process demand exceeding expectations further strengthening the resilience of semiconductor and cloud giants.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage Chip Sector Expected to Rise Strongly

• Representative stocks: Micron Technology (MU) benefits from price expectations, Seagate Technology (STX), Western Digital (WDC)
• Driving factors: Wedbush predicts DRAM prices will rise 130-150% in the first half of 2026, with NAND approaching triple digits, exacerbating supply-demand imbalance beyond market expectations.

Optical Communication Sector Broadly Up

• Representative stocks: Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) up 9.39%, Lumentum up 3.2%, Corning up 5.13%
• Driving factors: AAOI announced a $53 million order for 800G modules after hours, with sustained demand for AI computing power.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Apple Inc. - WWDC 2026 Scheduled

Event Overview: Apple announced that WWDC 2026 will be held from June 8-12, focusing on "significant progress in artificial intelligence" in the opening speech, and will launch updates for iOS, macOS, and other systems along with new tools. Bloomberg pointed out that the debut of iOS 27 will be the starting point for Apple's AI counterattack. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe this conference will showcase Apple's ability to catch up in the AI field, with investors highly focused on system-level AI integration. Investment Insight: WWDC has always been a catalyst for the ecosystem, suggesting attention to short-term opportunities in Apple's supply chain and software services sector.

2. Meta Platforms - Strategic Restructuring Recognized by Goldman Sachs

Event Overview: Meta is laying off employees and cutting expenses, delaying model releases, raising market concerns about AI capital pressure. Goldman Sachs rebutted that this is a proactive resource allocation, shifting from inefficient stock to high-value AI computing power, with cost structures still having elasticity. Market Interpretation: Goldman Sachs expects efficiency and growth rebalancing to continue driving positive EPS revisions, indicating a shift from "wintering" to "changing horses." Investment Insight: Strategic adjustments strengthen long-term competitiveness, and Meta's valuation may receive support, suitable for monitoring progress in AI application implementation.

3. Micron Technology - Expectations of Soaring Storage Chip Prices

Event Overview: A Wedbush report shows that the supply-demand imbalance for DRAM and NAND is worsening, with expected price increases reaching triple digits in the first half of 2026, with DRAM at 130-150%. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe the pace of demand improvement exceeds expectations, which will directly benefit storage manufacturers. Investment Insight: The price cycle is on the rise, suggesting positioning in core targets of the storage industry chain, focusing on performance elasticity in the first half of 2026.

4. Alibaba - DAMO Academy May Release Important Chip Products

Event Overview: DAMO Academy may release chip products today, targeting AI Agent computing power demand, and will hold the 2026 Xuantie RISC-V Ecosystem Conference tomorrow, having previously launched a server-level RISC-V CPU last year. Market Interpretation: Institutions view this as an important step for Alibaba's AI infrastructure, with high market attention. Investment Insight: Breakthroughs in chips may strengthen Alibaba Cloud's competitiveness, suggesting tracking the details of the conference and market feedback.

5. Applied Optoelectronics - Secured Large 800G Order

Event Overview: Announced after hours that it secured a $53 million order for 800G modules, with the stock price further rising after hours. Market Interpretation: The order validates strong demand for AI computing power, benefiting the overall optical communication sector. Investment Insight: The order's realization boosts performance visibility, focusing on the sustainability of demand for optical modules.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. BlackRock's staked ETH ETF (ETHB) attracted a net inflow of $155 million on its first day, becoming a new highlight of institutional demand following the Bitcoin ETF, with staking rewards distributed monthly enhancing attractiveness.

2. BTC spot ETF has seen net outflows for three consecutive days, but the cumulative inflow in March remains positive, with institutional accumulation trends unchanged, and whales continue to buy around $70,000.

3. The Solana Foundation released a report titled "Privacy on Solana: A Comprehensive Approach for Modern Enterprises," suggesting that enterprise-level adoption requires flexible privacy controls and positioning privacy as a customizable feature rather than a trade-off. The report believes that the next phase of crypto adoption will increasingly depend on allowing enterprises to control the subjects and content of information disclosure, rather than relying solely on transparency.

4. The SEC and CFTC jointly released Interpretive Release 33-11412, defining most native tokens of decentralized networks as digital commodities and clarifying that staking, LSD, wrapped tokens, and compliant airdrops do not constitute securities issuance. Based on this, the article proposes three previously difficult fundraising and treasury models: the first is Liquid Genesis Staking Pools (LGSP) based on staking ETH, SOL, etc., incentivized by both LSD returns and protocol tokens; the second is Commodity Pre-Participation Agreements (CPA) that exchange contributions of work and funds for future network participation rights, rather than pre-sold tokens; the third is Separation-Accelerated Revenue Rights (SARR) linked to decentralized milestones with decreasing profit-sharing, designing the "separation principle" as a tool to drive teams to accelerate decentralization.

5. Strategy expands ATM financing scale, adding $44.1 billion in securities issuance capacity. Among them, a new maximum of $21 billion in Class A common stock ATM, $21 billion in STRC preferred stock ATM, and $2.1 billion in STRK preferred stock ATM, and adds Moelis, Alliance, and StoneX as sales agents, while increasing the authorized shares of STRC and decreasing those of STRK.

6. Strategy purchased 1,031 BTC for about $76.6 million from March 16 to 22, with an average price of about $74,326; as of March 22, it holds a cumulative total of 762,099 BTC, with a total purchase cost of about $57.69 billion, and an overall average price of about $75,694.

7. According to CoinShares' latest weekly report, influenced by the Fed meeting being interpreted as "hawkish and stagnant," net inflows into digital asset investment products slowed to $230 million last week, with a total inflow of $635 million in the two days before the FOMC meeting and an outflow of $405 million afterward. Overall, regions still show net inflows, with the U.S. recording $153 million inflow, and Germany and Switzerland at $30.2 million and $27.5 million, respectively. Bitcoin products saw inflows of $219 million, but short Bitcoin products still had $6 million inflow, indicating an increase in long-short divergence.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

March 24 (Tuesday)

1. S&P Global March Manufacturing & Services PMI flash value release (economic leading indicator, focus on manufacturing performance under geopolitical shocks);
2. Fed Barr's speech (clues on monetary policy path).

March 25 (Wednesday)

1. PDD Holdings (Pinduoduo) to release financial report (pre-market), focusing on narrowing losses in cross-border e-commerce, Temu's overseas expansion, and domestic competitive pressure, significantly impacting sentiment in the Chinese internet sector;
2. Fed Miran's speech;

March 26 (Thursday)

1. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week (20:30), a high-frequency indicator of the labor market;
2. Speeches from several Fed officials (Jefferson, Barr, etc.), verifying recent policy paths and inflation responses;
3. G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting (26-27), focusing on statements regarding the Middle East/Hormuz Strait/energy supply.

March 27 (Friday)

1. Release of the final value of the March University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, focusing on the impact of geopolitics & oil prices on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations.

This week's core theme in U.S. stocks: The Hormuz Strait crisis dominates (oil prices, inflation, and energy stocks experience severe fluctuations), CERAWeek geopolitical energy discussions, intensive speeches from Fed officials, economic data (PMI, employment, confidence), and key financial reports from PDD. Under geopolitical uncertainty + high oil prices, market volatility is expected to significantly increase, with energy and inflation-sensitive sectors being the most affected.

Institutional Views:

Castle Securities' strategy chief Scott Rubner pointed out that record short positions face liquidation risks, and if geopolitical tensions ease, it will trigger a strong rebound, with hedge funds and systematic strategies likely to drive buying; Wedbush analysts emphasize that the price increase of storage chips far exceeds expectations, which will benefit MU, STX, WDC, and other manufacturers; Goldman Sachs believes that Meta's layoffs are a strategic resource reallocation rather than passive contraction, and EPS is expected to continue to be revised upward. Overall, the market is highly sensitive to positive catalysts, but oil prices and inflation pressures still weigh on the Fed's path. In the cryptocurrency market, although BTC ETF has short-term outflows, cumulative inflows remain stable, with institutions positioning during the pullback, and overall risk sentiment warming with the rebound in U.S. stocks, focusing on the psychological level of $70,000 and liquidation clusters in the short term. Easing geopolitical tensions will be the biggest variable this week, suggesting investors balance positions and pay attention to tonight's PMI data.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice.