Bitget UEX Daily Report | Houthi forces involved in Middle East conflict, oil futures surge over 3%; analysts predict Tesla and SpaceX may merge by 2027 (March 30, 2026)

I. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

The Federal Reserve's balance sheet may be reduced by $1-2 trillion

• Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that through measures such as easing liquidity regulations, the current balance sheet of about $7 trillion is expected to shrink by $1-2 trillion without causing severe market fluctuations; he emphasized the need for a gradual approach over several years.
• The U.S. consumer confidence index fell by 6% in March, reaching a new low since December 2025, with short-term inflation expectations rising from 3.4% to 3.8%.
• The Senate hearing for Federal Reserve Chair nominee Waller is expected to take place as early as the week of April 13. The Middle East conflict is driving up energy prices, exacerbating fluctuations in consumer confidence, and the rebound in short-term inflation expectations may constrain the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy space, leading to potential adjustments in market expectations for interest rate cuts.

International Commodities

Houthi forces officially join the fight against Israel, oil prices open higher on Monday

• Over the weekend, Houthi forces launched missiles and drones at Israel and stated they would continue their actions until attacks against Iran cease; both WTI and Brent crude oil opened about 1% higher on Monday, with futures soaring over 3%.
• The near-month Brent crude oil contract is trading at a premium of up to $7.58 per barrel compared to the next month, highlighting short-term supply tightness.
• The G7 is discussing the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves to alleviate pressure on the energy market. The escalation of the conflict directly threatens the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, increasing short-term oil price volatility and further testing the global energy supply chain.

Macroeconomic Policy

• The U.S. Department of Defense is preparing for ground operations in Iran, with U.S. troops in the Middle East expected to increase to 50,000; the White House anticipates that the intense phase of fighting may last another 2-4 weeks.
• California Governor Newsom signed a decree prohibiting officials from profiting in prediction markets using insider information. The escalation of U.S.-China trade frictions combined with geopolitical risks in the Middle East is jointly pushing up global inflation expectations and risk aversion, making policy hedging measures a focus for the market.

II. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Down 0.77%, priced at $4460 per ounce, dragged down by rising oil prices and a recovery in risk appetite.
• Spot Silver: Down 1.17%, priced at $68.9 per ounce, under pressure from industrial demand expectations.
• WTI Crude Oil: Up 1.83%, priced at $101.52 per barrel, driven by concerns over supply due to the escalating Middle East conflict.
• Brent Crude Oil: Up over 2%, priced at $107.49 per barrel, with short-term spreads widening, highlighting tight spot markets.
• Dollar Index: Slightly strengthened to 100.165, supported by inflows into safe-haven assets.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: 24H increase of about 0.31% to $66,593, oscillating near key support levels, showing safe-haven attributes under geopolitical risks but still weighed down by macro factors.
• ETH: 24H decrease of about -0.7% to $2,007, fluctuating with the market, with ETF outflows intensifying pressure.
• Total cryptocurrency market capitalization: 24H fluctuation of about 0.8%, total market cap around $2.35 trillion, with overall risk appetite cautious under geopolitical events.
• Market liquidation situation: Total liquidation in 24H about $307 million, with long positions liquidating about $235 million and short positions about $72 million, dominated by long position liquidations.
• Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation map: Current price around 66,645, with a significant concentration of short position liquidations in the 66,500--67,000 range below, while a large number of high-leverage long positions are clustered in the 67,500--68,200 range above, which could trigger a chain liquidation once broken. The overall structure shows stronger support below than pressure above, with a higher likelihood of first oscillating to digest leverage before choosing a direction, key observation on whether it can stabilize above 67,000 or break strongly above 68,000.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

As of last Friday's close

• Dow Jones: Closed down 1.73% at 45,166.64 points, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline, entering a correction zone.
• S&P 500: Closed down 1.67% at 6,368.85 points, down 8.7% from January highs.
• Nasdaq: Closed down 2.15% at 20,948.36 points, significantly dragged down by tech stocks, now in correction territory.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): Down 1.62%, closing at $248.80, with consumer electronics demand suppressed under macro risk aversion.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 2.51%, closing at $356.77, experiencing a multi-day pullback, significantly retracing from historical highs.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Down 2.17%, closing at $167.52, with the semiconductor sector overall under pressure.
• Amazon (AMZN): Down 3.95%, closing at $199.34, with retail and cloud businesses affected by rising energy costs and declining risk appetite.
• Meta (META): Down 3.99%, closing at $525.72, facing ongoing pressure from social media lawsuits and regulatory scrutiny.
• Alphabet (GOOGL): Down 2.34%, closing at $274.34, with advertising business facing regulatory uncertainties.
• Tesla (TSLA): Down 2.76%, closing at $361.83, although rising energy prices provide some support, overall market risk aversion prevails.

The seven giants collectively corrected, mainly driven by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East (Houthi forces joining, tensions between Israel and Iran), significantly reducing market risk appetite, with funds rotating from overvalued tech growth stocks to defensive sectors like energy.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy Sector up over 3%

• Representative stocks: Exxon Mobil up 3.5%.
• Driving factors: Soaring oil prices directly benefit upstream companies, and the escalation of conflict strengthens the theme of energy security.

Tech Hardware Sector down over 2%

• Representative stocks: Micron, Western Digital, and other storage stocks significantly corrected.
• Driving factors: AI model memory optimization news combined with macro risk aversion, leading to fund outflows from overvalued tech stocks.

III. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Nvidia (NVDA) - AI Capital Expenditure Pressure Emerges

Event Overview: As the absolute leader in the global AI GPU market, Nvidia's upcoming quarterly earnings guidance is highly anticipated by the market. Investors are particularly focused on whether data center business shipments can maintain strong growth, while the surge in oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict is driving up supply chain transportation costs and amplifying overall energy expenditure pressure for AI server deployments. Although the company's gross margin exceeds 75%, which can buffer some impacts, the $650 billion AI capital expenditure plan for hyperscalers in 2026 is facing sustainability doubts.

Market Interpretation: Institutional views are notably divided. Raymond James analysts raised the target price to $323 and maintained a Strong Buy rating, emphasizing that long-term AI demand is still driven by real cost savings and revenue growth; however, Seeking Alpha and others pointed out that there are doubts about the durability of growth, and concerns over AI capex in a high oil price environment have led to the stock price being stagnant for six months, with short-term target price facing downward pressure, although rising supply chain costs have limited impact but need continuous monitoring.

Investment Insight: In the short term, it is essential to track the transmission effect of energy costs on gross margins, while the long-term leadership position of AI technology remains solid. Investors are advised to dynamically adjust positions in line with oil price trends.

2. Microsoft (MSFT) - Focus on Cloud Business and AI Investments

Event Overview: As a giant in cloud and AI infrastructure, Microsoft is about to release its quarterly report, with the market focusing on whether Azure cloud service growth can deliver and the sustainability of AI infrastructure capital expenditures in a high oil price environment. The company is reducing its reliance on external GPUs through self-developed Maia accelerators and Cobalt CPUs, while Copilot subscription users have reached 4.7 million, demonstrating AI monetization potential.

Market Interpretation: Investment banks generally believe Azure demand is robust (39% year-on-year growth), but high oil prices driving up data center operating costs may compress profit margins; Guggenheim and Piper Sandler analysts maintain buy ratings and set target prices of $550-600, emphasizing the 30% revenue uplift potential brought by Copilot, while noting that AI investment is shifting from "speculation" to "ROI verification" stage, with valuation pressure still present in the short term.

Investment Insight: If performance exceeds expectations and demonstrates defensive attributes of cloud business, it could drive a rebound in the sector. It is advisable to closely monitor the progress of AI monetization as a signal for valuation recovery.

3. Tesla (TSLA) - Indirect Impact of Rising Energy Prices

Event Overview: As a dual-driven enterprise in electric vehicles and energy storage, the market is examining quarterly delivery data and energy business performance. While high oil prices may temporarily benefit the demand for storage products like Megapack (with deployment volume reaching 46.7 GWh in 2025, up 49% year-on-year), overall macro risk aversion still drags down the valuation of the automotive business. The company recently reached a $4.3 billion battery supply agreement with LG Energy Solution, further strengthening the domestic supply chain.

Market Interpretation: Analysts point out that the energy business now accounts for 13% of revenue and shows "extremely high growth" potential, with institutions like Zacks optimistic about new products Megapack 3 and Megablock accelerating deployments in 2026; however, the impact of high oil prices on EV demand remains controversial, and under macro risk aversion, automotive gross margins are under pressure, leading to increased short-term stock price volatility.

Investment Insight: Short-term volatility is significantly amplified, but the long-term logic of energy transition remains unchanged, making it suitable as a defensive allocation in the portfolio.

4. Exxon Mobil (XOM) - High Oil Prices Favorable

Event Overview: As a global energy giant, Exxon Mobil's earnings expectations have been significantly revised upward against the backdrop of escalating oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel due to the Middle East conflict. The market is focusing on the profit elasticity of upstream exploration and production businesses, as well as the accelerated cash flow improvement from projects like Guyana.

Market Interpretation: Investment banks have unanimously raised target prices, with Wells Fargo, Barclays, and Piper Sandler emphasizing that the oil supply-demand gap is widening under geopolitical conflict (with a projected tight balance of 2.0 Mb/d in 2026), supporting the theme of energy security; Mizuho and BofA noted that high oil prices will significantly boost free cash flow and support shareholder returns, with current valuations revised up from $144 to around $151.

Investment Insight: Defensive attributes have significantly strengthened, making it a core tool for hedging geopolitical risks in the portfolio, suitable for allocation in a high oil price range.

IV. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Walmart-owned OnePay added SUI, Polygon, Arbitrum, and other cryptocurrencies last Thursday. In the previous days, the platform had already launched ten tokens including Solana, Cardano, Bitcoin Cash, and PAX Gold, bringing the total number of newly added cryptocurrencies to over ten.

2. Punchbowl reported that two sources familiar with the plans revealed that the Senate Banking Committee plans to hold a nomination hearing for Kevin Waller as Federal Reserve Chair as early as the week of April 13. The specific date is still uncertain and will depend on whether Waller submits complete materials to the committee.

3. During Trump's second term, trades that were precisely positioned before major policy announcements may have brought millions of dollars in profits to some traders. Several legal experts stated that these trades should be investigated to maintain market fairness and determine whether there was any information leakage. According to Reuters, prior to a series of key decisions made by the Trump administration regarding tariffs, Venezuela, and Iran, there were suspected trades indicating early positioning in the market. These trades involved various types of markets and assets, such as options, commodity futures, and prediction markets.

4. Data: Tokens such as SUI, EIGEN, and OPN will see large unlocks this week, with SUI unlocking worth approximately $37.2 million.

5. According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, the TRUMP team is suspected of selling over $16.06 million worth of TRUMP tokens, with a Bitgo custody address depositing 5.48 million TRUMP to OKX in the past two hours, continuously tracing the source of funds, which were deposited into the TRUMP Team Allocation address (i.e., team shares) two months ago, totaling 18.14 million, valued at $81.64 million at that time.

6. According to CoinDesk, since Bitcoin reached a historical high of $127,000 in October 2025, the market quickly corrected to around $60,000 in the first quarter of 2026. Although the volatility was intense, it essentially belongs to a normal adjustment process of "de-leveraging + liquidity contraction" in the cycle.

From a cyclical structure perspective, 2026 may present a "multi-stage recovery": a bottoming out and de-leveraging at the beginning of the year, a mid-term rebound, and a potential return to a more sustainable upward channel after further oscillation in the later stages, a similar rhythm has occurred multiple times in past crypto cycles. In the current stage, a defensive allocation should be maintained, gradually increasing risk exposure after liquidity improves. 2026 is more likely to be a "transition year," rather than a one-sided bull or bear market, but this round of "reset" may lay the foundation for the next upward cycle.

Analysis suggests that the current pressure on the crypto market mainly stems from global liquidity tightening, including the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, a stronger dollar, IPO financing diverting funds, and rising pressures in the credit market. In this context, cryptocurrency prices often "decouple" from fundamentals in the short term, completing market clearing and cyclical resetting through declines.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• Event: Follow-up discussions after the G7 energy ministers' meeting - focus on the feasibility of releasing strategic oil reserves.
• Event: Latest developments in indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran - focus on the impact of Trump's statements on oil prices.

Institutional Views:

Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that the Middle East conflict has entered a new phase, with the Houthi forces joining and U.S. troop increases likely to keep oil prices fluctuating at high levels in the short term. The valuation of the energy sector is expected to further recover, but this will also transmit to inflation expectations, constraining the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting pace. Morgan Stanley pointed out that if Brent crude oil remains above $100, it will increase global stagflation risks, suggesting investors increase allocations to energy and defensive assets while reducing holdings in overvalued tech stocks. Goldman Sachs analysts emphasized that while the crypto market is under short-term pressure from declining risk appetite, BTC ETF outflows have slowed, and long-term institutional allocation demand remains; if geopolitical tensions ease, risk assets are likely to see a rebound. Overall, the market is in a "risk aversion + defensive" mode, with short-term volatility likely to remain high until diplomatic negotiations make substantial progress.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice.