Bitget UEX Daily Report｜Iran denies negotiations for oil prices to return to $100; Nasdaq 100 index new rules, SpaceX expected to be included in the index (March 31, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: Prefers to Keep Interest Rates Unchanged Amid Energy Shock Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pointed out on Monday that in the context of energy price shocks triggered by U.S. military actions against Iran, the Fed can temporarily overlook this impact and tends to maintain the current interest rate level. However, if rising prices begin to change the public's long-term inflation expectations, action may be taken. New York Fed President Williams added that the current monetary policy stance effectively balances employment and price stability risks; Governor Milan stated that he will remain in position until a new chairman is confirmed and supports a rate cut of about 1 percentage point within the year. Powell's remarks quickly alleviated market concerns about the Fed being forced to tighten policy, leading traders to increase bets on a low-probability rate cut this year, with short-term U.S. Treasury yields briefly falling over 10 basis points. Overall, this statement injects a degree of certainty into the market, helping to stabilize investor expectations regarding the monetary policy path.

International Commodities

U.S. Oil Returns to $100 Era, Iran Conflict Raises Global Energy Risks Since the U.S. and Israel began military action against Iran, U.S. WTI crude oil futures rose over 3% on Monday, closing at $105 per barrel, the highest since July 2022, and continued to rise on Tuesday; Brent crude oil also strengthened. The IMF warned that the conflict could trigger "global but asymmetric" shocks, pushing prices higher and dragging down economic growth, especially affecting oil-importing countries. The surge in oil prices directly reflects tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by Trump's threats to further strike energy facilities, with short-term supply concerns dominating the market. Investors need to pay attention to the duration of the conflict; if an agreement is reached in the short term, oil prices may face downward pressure.

Macroeconomic Policy

White House Says Trump Hopes to Reach Agreement with Iran Before April 6, Iran Denies Direct Negotiations White House Press Secretary Levitt stated that U.S. military actions against Iran are proceeding as planned, expected to last 4-6 weeks, and revealed that Trump hopes to reach an agreement before April 6 (the previously postponed deadline for attacking energy facilities); Iran has agreed to allow 20 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with another 20 expected soon. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei insisted that no negotiations have taken place with the U.S. since the war began 31 days ago, only receiving proposals through intermediaries like Pakistan. The Iranian parliament passed a bill imposing tolls on the Strait of Hormuz and banning U.S. and Israeli vessels from passing, with the first vice president warning that a U.S. military attack on Khark Island would be "one-way." Geopolitical uncertainty and oil prices are increasingly linked, with the IMF predicting that supply chain disruptions will push up food and fertilizer prices, raising global inflation risks in the short term, which will depend on the evolution of the conflict in the long term.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Slightly up 0.37% to about $4527 per ounce, fluctuating for two consecutive days, suppressed by rising oil prices and a slight rebound in the dollar, but supported by geopolitical risk demand.
• Spot Silver: Slightly down 0.05% to about $70 per ounce, with greater volatility, interweaving industrial demand and safe-haven attributes.
• WTI Crude Oil: Up over 3.4%, closing at $106 per barrel, driven by concerns over supply disruptions due to the Iran conflict.
• Brent Crude Oil: Simultaneously up about 2.37% to $109 per barrel, with significant geopolitical risk premiums.
• Dollar Index: Up 0.02% to about 100.51, supported by safe-haven buying and oil price movements.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Up 0.92% in 24 hours, reported at $66,945, continuing a fluctuating trend, affected by oil price shocks and U.S. stock market corrections.
• ETH: Up 1.75% in 24 hours, reported at about $2,033.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Up 0.4% in 24 hours to about $2.38 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation of about $216 million in 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at about $111 million and short positions at about $105 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $67,166, with a significant concentration of short position liquidations in the range of $66,800 to $67,000 below, while above $68,000 to $69,000, there is a large concentration of high-leverage long positions (50x to 100x). A rebound breaking through is likely to trigger continuous long liquidations. Overall structure leans towards "stronger pressure above, more stable support below," with a higher likelihood of maintaining high-level fluctuations and repeatedly testing the $67,000 support in the short term. The real direction depends on whether it can break through $68,000 with volume.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $61.9 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $10.6 million yesterday.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: BTC saw an inflow of about $2.334 billion yesterday, an outflow of about $2.274 billion, with a net inflow of about $60 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 0.11% to 45,216 points, continuing a slight rebound.
• S&P 500: Down 0.39% to 6,343 points, with energy sector support not fully offsetting tech sector corrections.
• Nasdaq: Down 0.73% to 20,794 points, with tech stocks leading the decline but overall losses narrowing.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): -0.87% ($246.63), dragged down by the overall tech sector.
• Microsoft (MSFT): +0.61% ($358.96), supported by resilience in AI business.
• Google (GOOGL): -0.31% ($273.50), stable in search and cloud business.
• Amazon (AMZN): +0.81% ($200.95), strong performance in e-commerce and cloud services.
• NVIDIA (NVDA): -1.40% ($165.17), concerns over chip cycle.
• Meta (META): +2.03% ($536.38), strong advertising business leading the gains.
• Tesla (TSLA): -1.81% ($355.28), pressured by vehicle delivery data. Overall, Meta and Amazon rose against the trend, driven by performance resilience and defensive attributes; other giants were dragged down by high oil prices and geopolitical risks.

Sector Movement Observation

Energy Sector rose about 2.5%

• Representative stocks: ExxonMobil (XOM) +3.2%, Chevron (CVX) +2.8%.
• Driving factors: The Iran conflict pushed oil prices higher, with concerns over energy supply disruptions dominating, making the sector a preferred safe haven.

Semiconductor Sector fell about 1.2%

• Representative stocks: NVIDIA (NVDA) -1.4%, AMD -1.8%.
• Driving factors: Rising inflation expectations under the impact of oil prices, with the market concerned about the tightening effects of Fed policy on growth stock valuations.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Tesla (TSLA) - TERAFAB Super Chip Factory Project

Event Overview: Tesla is accelerating the TERAFAB super chip factory project, planning to invest $20-25 billion to build large-scale chip production bases globally, and is engaging in deep strategic cooperation with SpaceX and xAI. The project is expected to provide up to 1TW of computing power annually, mainly serving humanoid robot training, autonomous driving system optimization, and broader AI infrastructure development. This is a key step for Tesla in transitioning from traditional automotive manufacturing to a full-stack AI ecosystem. In the current context of rising energy costs due to geopolitical conflicts, this layout not only strengthens internal computing power self-sufficiency but also directly responds to the long-term trend of tight global AI computing power supply and demand. Once the project is implemented, it will further integrate Tesla's advantages in hardware, software, and data loops, forming a unique competitive barrier. Market Interpretation: Several Wall Street institutions are generally optimistic that this project will significantly enhance Tesla's long-term competitiveness in the AI hardware field. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and others point out that this will drive a reconstruction of valuation from automotive business to high-margin AI services, but they also remind that close monitoring of project capital expenditure pace and supply chain stability is necessary to avoid short-term cash flow pressure. Investment Insight: In the short term, project progress catalysts are expected to drive a temporary rebound in stock prices. Medium to long-term investors should focus on the timeline for capacity implementation, humanoid robot delivery milestones, and synergies with partners to seize core opportunities in the AI hardware track.

2. Apple (AAPL) - Major Design Adjustments for Foldable iPhone

Event Overview: Apple's next-generation foldable iPhone will undergo the largest design overhaul in history, including the cancellation of the traditional Face ID scheme in favor of side-mounted Touch ID fingerprint recognition, comprehensive optimization for screen crease issues, and significant improvements in overall durability and feel, expected to be officially launched in the second half of 2026. This adjustment stems from Apple's deep review of market feedback on foldable products, aiming to address early foldable device pain points, enhance user experience, and stimulate replacement demand among existing iPhone users. In the context of slowing growth in the global smartphone market, this innovation is seen as an important measure for Apple to revitalize the growth curve of high-end consumer electronics and will further consolidate its technological leadership in the high-end foldable screen sector. Market Interpretation: Analysts generally believe that this design change is likely to significantly boost iPhone sales curves. Institutions like Morgan Stanley have raised their medium to long-term revenue and profit growth expectations for Apple, but they also emphasize that short-term cost pressures from supply chain adjustments need to be closely monitored, especially in the current environment of high energy prices, where potential fluctuations in raw material and logistics costs will become variables. Investment Insight: The opening of the innovation cycle is expected to drive a valuation recovery for Apple. Investors can position themselves in related supply chain partners in advance and continue to track product preheating signals and capacity dynamics of supply chain partners to capture potential replacement cycle dividends.

3. Meta (META) - Testing of Instagram Premium Subscription Service

Event Overview: Meta Platforms has launched internal testing of the Instagram premium subscription service, offering users paid features such as exclusive content access, significantly reduced ads, and personalized AI tools, with the testing scope covering key markets. This is Meta's latest attempt to actively explore diversified monetization paths beyond an ad-driven revenue model, aiming to mitigate risks through subscription income and enhance user stickiness and ARPU. In the current context of AI technology accelerating content creation and recommendation, this move not only optimizes the platform ecosystem but also injects new momentum into Meta's long-term growth in the social and entertainment sectors, complementing its existing advertising and e-commerce businesses. Market Interpretation: Institutional analysis indicates that this subscription model will further diversify Meta's revenue structure, reducing reliance on advertising business. Coupled with deep integration of AI tools, Meta's long-term growth path will become clearer and more resilient; however, analysts also remind that attention should be paid to user conversion rates and the effectiveness of pricing strategy optimization to ensure the scalability of subscription income. Investment Insight: The scalable expansion of subscription income is expected to significantly enhance Meta's profit resilience. Investors are advised to continuously track testing data, user conversion metrics, and ARPU improvement trends as key signals for assessing platform monetization efficiency.

4. SpaceX and Other Unicorns - Impact of Nasdaq Index New Rules

Event Overview: The Nasdaq Stock Exchange officially announced revisions to the "Fast Inclusion" index compilation rules, effective May 1, 2026. The core content of the new rules is that new stocks can start evaluation only on the seventh trading day after listing, and if the market capitalization reaches the Nasdaq 100 index threshold, they can be quickly included. This adjustment directly benefits high-valuation unicorn companies like SpaceX and OpenAI, marking Nasdaq's further optimization of index liquidity and inclusiveness, aiming to attract more innovative high-growth companies and enhance overall market vitality. In the current market environment of increasing geopolitical risks and energy price fluctuations, this move provides private equity and early investors with more efficient exit and valuation realization channels and will accelerate the capitalization process of quality tech assets. Market Interpretation: Several investment banks believe that this rule optimization will significantly enhance the secondary market liquidity and valuation premiums of quality tech companies, benefiting the financing ecosystem of innovative enterprises in the long term. At the same time, analysts point out that the market capitalization threshold will become a core screening criterion, expected to drive rapid increases in funding attention across related industry chains, but caution is also advised regarding the valuation reassessment risks brought by short-term index fluctuations. Investment Insight: Related industry chains are expected to welcome incremental capital inflows. Investors should closely monitor the dynamic adjustments of index constituents and the listing pace of unicorns like SpaceX to seize phase opportunities before and after the implementation of the rules.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas on platform X, LeverageShares has submitted applications for three Bitcoin volatility-related ETFs: Leverage Shares Bitcoin Volatility Daily Long ETF, Leverage Shares 2x Bitcoin Volatility Daily Long ETF, and Leverage Shares -1x Bitcoin Volatility Daily Short ETF. These products are similar to XIV and TVIX, but the underlying asset is Bitcoin.

2. Square, owned by Jack Dorsey, has begun automatically enabling Bitcoin payment functionality for millions of U.S. merchants, with transactions instantly converted to dollars at checkout, allowing merchants to receive Bitcoin without additional setup and without bearing price volatility and custody risks. This feature includes near-instant settlement and waives processing fees until 2026.

3. Strategy disclosed in its latest regulatory filing that as of the week ending March 29, 2026, the company has not purchased new Bitcoin, maintaining a holding of 762,099 coins; at that time's market value, this batch of Bitcoin is worth over $51.5 billion. Bitmine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) disclosed that it purchased 71,179 ETH last week and currently holds 4,732,082 ETH, accounting for about 3.92% of the total ETH supply.

4. U.S. Republican Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bill Cassidy have proposed the "U.S. Mining Act," aimed at expanding the role of cryptocurrency mining in the U.S. economy and incorporating President Trump's executive order on establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve into law. The bill will direct the Department of Commerce to establish a voluntary certification program for mining pools and facilities and require certified facilities to gradually phase out mining equipment manufactured by companies associated with foreign adversaries.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• Event: Progress of Indirect Negotiations Between Iran and the U.S. - Focus on whether an agreement is reached before April 6, affecting oil prices and global risk appetite.

• Event: Observation period before the Nasdaq 100 index compilation rule revisions take effect - Officially implemented from May 1, focus on the possibility of unicorns like SpaceX entering the index.

• April 1 (Wednesday)

1. Tesla and other new energy vehicle companies will announce first-quarter delivery data; Tesla has revised its 2026 delivery expectation down to 1.689 million units.

2. 2026 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Bullard will speak at 21:05 (UTC+8) on the U.S. economy and monetary policy.

3. U.S. March ADP employment figures will be released at 20:15, U.S. February retail sales month-on-month at 20:30, U.S. March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value at 21:45, and U.S. March ISM Manufacturing PMI at 22:00.

   April 2 (Thursday)

4. 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak at 23:00.

5. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 will be released at 20:30.

   April 3 (Friday)

6. U.S. March unemployment rate and March seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll figures will be released at 20:30, and U.S. March S&P Global Services PMI final value at 21:45.

7. U.S. stock markets will be closed for one day due to Good Friday.

   *This week's core themes in U.S. stocks revolve around speeches by Federal Reserve officials, non-farm and ADP employment data, and Tesla delivery data, with employment data and policy signals overlapping, leading to expected increased market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan agree that the Iran conflict will continue to push oil prices to the $100-$110 range in the short term, and global inflation pressures may force the Fed to maintain a "higher for longer" policy stance in 2026. However, Powell's statement to "temporarily overlook" provides a buffer for the market. It is expected that U.S. stocks will primarily fluctuate in the short term, with tech stock valuations under pressure while the energy sector receives support. In the cryptocurrency market, Morgan Stanley points out that continuous inflows into BTC ETFs, combined with leveraged liquidations, have laid the foundation for a potential rebound. If geopolitical risks ease, BTC is expected to return above $70,000; conversely, high oil prices will continue to suppress risk assets. Overall, geopolitical uncertainty remains the dominant variable, and investors are advised to pay attention to subsequent speeches by Federal Reserve officials and the latest developments in the Middle East. Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification for publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.