Analysis: BTC ends five consecutive monthly declines and closes higher; the bottom may be in the fourth quarter of 2026

According to market news, Bitcoin (BTC) closed up 1.8%, ending a five-month decline since 2025, but faced a new round of volatility at the beginning of April, dropping to $67,630 during the Asian morning session.

Although April has historically been a strong month for BTC (with an average historical increase of 12.1%), the market has continued to deviate from seasonal patterns since the end of 2025. Regarding macro and geopolitical uncertainties, Binance Research pointed out that if clear signals of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran emerge, it could boost the crypto market for further recovery.

On the technical side, some analysts believe that the current macro environment closely resembles the market structure before the significant BTC rises in 2016 and 2020. However, Alphractal's CEO and CryptoQuant models both indicate that the current bottom may appear between September and November 2026, at which point there is a possibility of prices falling below $40,000.