Bitget UEX Daily Report | Trump plans to declare victory in the Iran conflict; SpaceX secret IPO; strong rebound in optical storage communication (April 2, 2026)

# 1. Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Federal Reserve official Barkin: The impact of oil prices is seen as a short-term phenomenon, consumer spending remains resilient

• Richmond Fed President Barkin pointed out that although oil prices have risen due to geopolitical conflicts, businesses and households generally view it as a temporary event, with no significant decline in consumption and inflation expectations remaining largely unchanged.
• He emphasized that future adjustments in Federal Reserve policy will mainly depend on whether inflation expectations rise, and currently, no significant upward signals have been observed, with the market generally expecting the Fed to maintain a wait-and-see stance.
• Market Impact: This statement alleviated investors' concerns about long-term high interest rates, providing support for a rebound in risk assets, while also confirming the continued resilience of consumption against the backdrop of rebounding economic data.

International Commodities

IEA Director warns that the oil supply crisis will further intensify in April, considering additional releases from strategic reserves

• International Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol stated that the conflict in Iran has led to oil supply shortages pushing up prices, and the crisis is expected to worsen in the coming month.
• The IEA is assessing the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves again to ease global supply tensions.
• Market Impact: This will continue to support high oil prices in the short term, but if reserves are released, it may quickly alleviate geopolitical premiums and drive crude oil prices down.

Macroeconomic Policy

Trump plans to announce "victory" in the Iran conflict and shift the issue of the Strait of Hormuz to NATO; tariff system reshaping and economic data both exceed expectations

• Trump delivered a speech today at 9 AM (UTC+8), claiming that the month-long war in Iran is nearing its end and plans to blame the shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz on NATO allies; meanwhile, Iranian intelligence assessments show no intention for substantive negotiations. However, according to reports from The New York Times, U.S. officials revealed that several intelligence agencies recently assessed that the Iranian government is currently unwilling to engage in substantive negotiations to end the U.S.-Israel conflict.
• The Trump administration is preparing to adjust steel and aluminum tariffs, with finished products being uniformly taxed at 25% based on overall prices, replacing the previous complex model that taxed 50% based on metal value; there are also plans for adjustments to pharmaceutical tariffs.
• U.S. retail sales in February increased by 0.6% month-on-month, and ADP reported 62,000 new private jobs in March, both better than expected.
• Market Impact: Signals of geopolitical easing boost risk appetite, while tariff simplification may benefit domestic manufacturing but could exacerbate trade frictions; the rebound in economic data further solidifies expectations of consumption resilience.

# 2. Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: Up about 0.64%, touching $4,800 per ounce, continuing to rebound, supported by geopolitical uncertainty.
• Spot Silver: Up about 0.61% to $75.5, following gold's strength and maintaining volatility.
• WTI Crude Oil: Down about 2%, priced at about $98 per barrel, driven by optimistic expectations of the potential end of the Iran conflict.
• Brent Crude Oil: Down about 1.48%, priced at about $99.66 per barrel, with geopolitical premiums easing.
• Dollar Index: Slight fluctuations, reported at 99.52, influenced by the Fed's wait-and-see stance and signals of geopolitical easing.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: Up about 0.14% in 24 hours, priced at about $68,382, showing a moderate rebound under easing geopolitical conditions, with market risk appetite warming.
• ETH: Up about 1.76% in 24 hours, priced at about $2,146, following the overall market trend, with technical support maintained.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: Up 0.1%, total market cap approximately $2.43 trillion.
• Market Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation in 24 hours approximately $270 million, with long positions liquidated about $110 million and short positions about $160 million.
• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price around $68,171, with a large concentration of 50x–100x long position liquidation pressure in the $69,000–$70,000 range; if a rebound approaches this range, it may trigger concentrated liquidations forming upward resistance. The $67,000–$67,500 range is a relative support area after gradual release of short position liquidations, structurally showing "upward pressure and downward support," with short-term fluctuations likely around $68,000 before choosing a direction.

• Spot ETF Net Inflow/Outflow: BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of about $87.2 million yesterday; ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $19.7 million yesterday.
• BTC Spot Inflow/Outflow: Yesterday saw an inflow of $2.154 billion and an outflow of $2.082 billion, with a net inflow of about $32.08 million.

U.S. Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: Up 0.48%, reported at 46,565.74 points, rebounding for two consecutive days.
• S&P 500: Up 0.72%, reported at 6,575.32 points, characterized by a moderate rise driven by the technology sector.
• Nasdaq: Up 1.16%, reported at 21,840.95 points, driven by strong performance in tech stocks.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• Apple (AAPL): Up 0.73%, priced at about $255.63, driven by overall tech sentiment.
• Microsoft (MSFT): Down 0.22%, priced at about $369.37, supported by AI demand but slightly retracing.
• Nvidia (NVDA): Up 0.77%, priced at about $175.75, with a rebound in the chip sector.
• Google (GOOGL): Up 3.42%, priced at about $297.39, with strong performance in AI and search business.
• Amazon (AMZN): Up about 1.1%, priced at about $210.57, boosted by acquisition rumors.
• Meta (META): Up 1.24%, priced at about $579.23, following the tech rally.
• Tesla (TSLA): Up 2.56%, priced at about $381.26, benefiting from overall market optimism. The core reason: signals of geopolitical easing combined with fundamental support from AI and tech sectors drive a collective rebound among the seven giants.

Sector Movement Observation

Storage and Optical Communication Sector Up over 8%

• Representative stocks: SanDisk up over 9%, LITE up over 8%.
• Driving factors: Market expectations for improved demand in data centers and communications, with the sector continuing to rebound.

Satellite and Aerospace-Related Sector Strong in Night Trading

• Representative stock: Globalstar up over 18% in night trading.
• Driving factors: Acquisition rumors by Amazon, creating competitive expectations with SpaceX's secret IPO application.

# 3. In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. SpaceX - Secretly Submits IPO Application

Event Overview: According to insiders, SpaceX has secretly submitted an IPO application to regulators, targeting a valuation of about $1.75 trillion. This move marks the imminent entry of Musk's most valuable private company into the public market, potentially creating competition with Amazon's acquisition of satellite company Globalstar. Market Interpretation: Institutions generally believe that SpaceX's IPO will inject liquidity into the aerospace and satellite communication sector, with valuation premiums likely to drive related supply chain stocks. Considering SpaceX's leading advantages in the Starlink network and reusable rocket technology, if its IPO is approved, it will reshape market perceptions of the commercialization value of aerospace, similar to Tesla, achieving capital circulation through public trading, further accelerating Starlink deployment and deep space exploration projects. Analysts expect this move will not only dilute Musk's personal shareholding but may also trigger a reevaluation of the entire aerospace supply chain's valuation, especially against the backdrop of current geopolitical easing, with defense and commercial satellite demand recovering simultaneously. Investment Insight: The aerospace industry chain may welcome long-term allocation opportunities, and investors can pay attention to Starlink-related component suppliers, but must closely track regulatory approval progress and market valuation digestion capacity to avoid risks of excessive short-term premiums leading to corrections.

2. Globalstar (GSAT) - Amazon Negotiating Acquisition

Event Overview: Amazon is negotiating to acquire satellite communication company Globalstar, which may create direct competition with SpaceX, causing Globalstar's stock price to surge over 18% in night trading. Market Interpretation: Analysts point out that if the acquisition materializes, it will significantly enhance Amazon's layout in low Earth orbit satellite networks, strengthening its cloud services and IoT ecosystem. As a pure U.S. stock listed company, Globalstar GSAT's low Earth orbit satellite assets are highly synergistic with Amazon's AWS cloud infrastructure, quickly filling the gap in enterprise-level IoT and remote area coverage left by Starlink; at the same time, this transaction may trigger a wave of mergers and acquisitions in the satellite communication industry, pushing the sector from "concept speculation" to "actual revenue realization," especially under the pressure of SpaceX's IPO, Amazon's move is seen as a defensive strategic layout. Investment Insight: The satellite communication sector has clear short-term catalysts, and it is recommended to pay attention to GSAT's valuation recovery and the probability of merger realization, while simultaneously allocating Amazon's own stock to capture the synergy benefits of the industry chain.

3. SanDisk (SNDK) / Storage Sector Stocks - Continuing Rebound

Event Overview: The storage and optical communication sector continues to be strong, with SanDisk's stock price rising over 9%, driven by demand from data centers. Market Interpretation: Institutions believe that the expansion of AI computing power is driving storage demand, with the sector's fundamentals continuing to improve. As an independent publicly traded U.S. storage leader, SanDisk SNDK's technological accumulation in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and enterprise-level SSDs is directly benefiting from the ramp-up of AI servers like Nvidia's GB200; currently, global data center capital expenditures are growing over 30% month-on-month, and the supply chain tightness is unlikely to be resolved in the short term, analysts have raised the sector's revenue expectations for 2026 by 15%-20%, while emphasizing SanDisk's high gross margin advantage in AI training/inference scenarios, which will drive its valuation from the current low level towards historical averages. Investment Insight: The data center-related supply chain still has allocation value, and investors can accumulate core targets like SNDK on dips, while paying attention to the next quarter's earnings verification window to confirm the sustainability of AI demand.

4. LITE (Lumentum) - Leading the Optical Communication Sector

Event Overview: Optical communication stock LITE rose over 8%, with the sector continuing its rebound momentum. Market Interpretation: Analysts emphasize that demand for 5G and data center optical modules is strong, and the sector's valuation has room for recovery. As a pure U.S. stock leader in optical modules, Lumentum LITE leads in market share in the 800G/1.6T high-speed optical engine field, benefiting from the global data center's comprehensive upgrade from copper cables to optical fibers; coupled with the surge in AI clusters' demand for low-latency, high-bandwidth interconnects, institutional models show that LITE's fiscal year 2026 EPS is expected to grow by over 25% year-on-year, with its current valuation significantly discounted compared to peers, and the market expects it to further validate order visibility during earnings season. Investment Insight: The optical communication industry chain has a high mid-term prosperity, suitable for accumulating quality targets like LITE on dips, while also considering macro interest rate path judgments for the sector's sustainability.

5. Eli Lilly (LLY) - Oral Weight Loss Drug Approved

Event Overview: Eli Lilly's oral weight loss drug has been approved, with the stock price rising by 3.78%. Market Interpretation: Institutions are optimistic about its competitive advantage in the weight loss drug market, expecting it to further expand its market share. As a benchmark for pharmaceutical innovation in U.S. stocks, Eli Lilly LLY's oral weight loss drug approval not only fills the convenience gap in its pipeline but also complements injectables, expected to capture market share from Novo Nordisk's Ozempic/Wegovy; Wall Street's latest models have raised Lilly's 2026 weight loss drug revenue forecast to over $15 billion, emphasizing its GLP-1 class drugs' clinical data advantages in cardiovascular complications, which will drive a long-term compound growth rate of over 20%. Investment Insight: The pharmaceutical innovation sector still has long-term growth potential, and it is recommended to pay attention to Lilly's pipeline progress while diversifying allocations to other innovative U.S. pharmaceutical companies in the same track to hedge regulatory risks.

# 4. Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright stated that this round of Bitcoin's cycle has retraced about 50% from its historical high, far below the previous cycle's 80% to 90% declines, indicating that the market is maturing, volatility is decreasing, and institutional confidence is strengthening.

LVRG Research Director Nick Ruck pointed out that this marks Bitcoin's transition from a speculative asset to a more stable store of value. Bitcoin hit a low of about $60,000 in this cycle on February 6, down 52% from last October's historical high of $126,000. The previous cycle fell from a high of $69,000 in 2021 to $16,000, a decline of 77%.

Analysts also noted that according to historical decay patterns, the bottom of this cycle may appear in late September to early October 2026.

2. The total locked value (TVL) on the Monad blockchain reached $355 million, growing over 55% since early February, becoming the fastest Layer 1 blockchain to break through $300 million TVL in recent years. However, Monad's daily average fee income is less than $3,000, with $355 million in capital generating only about six figures in annual income, and its fee-to-TVL ratio is the lowest among all chains with considerable TVL.

3. Aave V4 was officially released at EthCC, adopting a hub-and-spoke architecture to support real-world assets (RWA), further expanding the boundaries of DeFi applications.

4. Michael Selig, Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the agency is ready to regulate the entire $30 trillion cryptocurrency industry and reiterated that the CFTC is the sole regulator of prediction markets. The CFTC has implemented several policies indicating a more lenient enforcement and regulatory stance on digital assets compared to the previous administration.

5. According to BitcoinTreasuries.NET data, the preferred stock STRC issued by Strategy recently raised funds to purchase 2,724 Bitcoins.

# 5. Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecasts

• Trump's speech related to the Iran conflict: Today at 09:00 (UTC+8) - Pay attention to the impact of the "victory declaration" on geopolitical risks and oil prices.
• SpaceX IPO progress: Ongoing tracking - Focus on valuation reassessment opportunities in the aerospace sector.

April 2 (Thursday)

1. 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks at 23:00;
2. U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 will be released at 20:30.

April 3 (Friday)

1. U.S. unemployment rate for March and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for March will be released at 20:30, and the final value of the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI for March will be released at 21:45;
2. U.S. stock markets will be closed for one day due to Good Friday.

This week's core themes in U.S. stocks revolve around speeches from Federal Reserve officials, non-farm and ADP employment data, and Tesla delivery data, with employment data and policy signals overlapping, leading to expected increased market volatility.

Institutional Views:

Driven by signals of easing geopolitical conflicts, U.S. stocks collectively rose yesterday, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq rising 0.48%, 0.72%, and 1.16% respectively, led by the technology sector; gold maintained near $4,800 high, while oil fell about 2% due to "victory in sight" expectations. The cryptocurrency market also rebounded in sync, with BTC gently rising to around $68,200, and total market cap recovering to $2.35 trillion. Well-known investment bank analysts generally believe that if Trump's speech confirms the war is nearing its end, it will significantly reduce geopolitical premiums, benefiting risk assets and the consumer sector, while alleviating the Fed's long-term pressure to remain inactive; Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan strategists pointed out that while tariff simplification may increase some import costs, it overall benefits domestic manufacturing, coupled with retail sales and ADP data exceeding expectations, confirming consumption resilience. However, institutions also remind to be cautious of the actual opening process of the Strait of Hormuz; if negotiations stall, oil and gold still have upward space. Overall, short-term market risk appetite is expected to continue, and it is recommended to focus on technology, aerospace, and storage sectors, while maintaining cautiously optimistic views on cryptocurrency assets, with ETF fund inflow trends worth continuous tracking.

Disclaimer: The above content is organized by AI search, with human verification and publication, and does not constitute any investment advice.