Viewpoint: The weak U.S. economy, pressure on private credit, and war factors may influence Bitcoin to rise to $75,000

Bitcoin fell back after reaching $69,000 on Wednesday, following U.S. President Trump's speech that failed to assure an end to the Iran war, while WTI crude oil prices rose above $110, triggering market risk aversion. Meanwhile,

the U.S. Treasury expressed concerns about the $2 trillion private credit market, and Blue Owl, which manages $30.7 billion in assets, announced that two of its private credit funds experienced "unconventional redemption requests," setting a withdrawal request limit of 5%. The number of people continuously applying for unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose to 1.84 million.

Bitcoin has maintained a support level of $66,000 this week but faces multiple selling pressures. The U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of $450 million since March 24, with the industry holding $88 billion in Bitcoin assets, of which BlackRock's IBIT leads with $53.9 billion. MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC in March, Riot Platforms transferred out 500 BTC for sale, and Nakamoto Holdings sold 284 BTC.

The U.S. federal deficit is expected to reach $1.9 trillion by 2026, and the market believes that economic stimulus measures may provide support for Bitcoin prices in the medium term. Companies like Strategy and Metaplanet continue to buy Bitcoin, partially offsetting the aforementioned selling pressure.