Analysis: After BTC officially enters the second half of the bear market, it will be difficult to break below $45,500 even with a final drop

Analyst Murphy stated that the average on-chain turnover cost of BTC held for 1-2 years (yellow line) has crossed the average on-chain turnover cost of BTC held for 1-3 months (orange line). This signal can be almost 100% confirmed at the on-chain data level, marking that BTC has officially entered the second half of the bear market.

Additionally, Murphy mentioned that the Bitcoin long-term valuation indicator CVDD proposed by well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo reached $45,410 at the end of last month, a slow increase of only $506 since February 10. This reflects that early large whale holders have significantly reduced or even almost stopped on-chain turnover.

CVDD is one of the few indicators that has never failed in BTC's history—prices have always remained above CVDD, and bear market bottoms can only get infinitely close to it but have never fallen below. Therefore, even if there is a "final drop," BTC is unlikely to go below approximately $45,500, with a theoretical maximum decline of about 30%, but in reality, it is likely to be much smaller than that.