CryptoQuant: The Bitcoin derivatives market is dominated by short positions, while long positions continue to face liquidation pressure

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated, "The Bitcoin Position Index is a comprehensive indicator that measures the aggressiveness of long/short positions in the derivatives market, reflecting the current actual opening direction of futures market participants.

The 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) of this index reached a local high of +3 on March 17 when the Bitcoin price was $73,925, and has since continued to decline, now down to -3.1. This reflects a sustained accumulation of short positions. During the same period, the Bitcoin price fell from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d declining in sync with the market price, further confirming a weakening market structure.

The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and has continued to rise, reaching 18.6% as of now. This indicates that the market is continuously generating forced liquidations on the long side, preventing structural recovery. The red bars dominated by short liquidations have not appeared since October 2025. As long as the 30-day moving average (30DMA) remains high and the significant red bars do not return, the pressure on long positions will persist. If the 30DMA reverses downward, it will be the first signal that liquidation balance begins to recover. The reversal of both indicators occurring simultaneously will confirm each other.

The Bitcoin price has cumulatively dropped about 11% from the peak of $74,883, and the current derivatives market structure shows no foundation for a sustained reversal: shorts dominate, longs continue to be cleared, and short squeeze scenarios are almost nonexistent. Current operational stance: avoid risk. The main downside risk is: if the pressure from forced liquidations continues and the position SMA-30d remains below the zero axis, the bearish pattern will further solidify, and the downward pressure on Bitcoin price will intensify if it breaks below $66,000.