BIT Research: Bitcoin Approaches Key Support, April May Bring a Decisive Direction Period

The current round of the cryptocurrency market is in an important transitional phase. Bitcoin has recently seen a slight rebound after months of correction and is retesting the key support range that it previously lost. However, overall, the market's recovery foundation remains unstable, and the trend is still relatively weak. Macroeconomic pressures continue to accumulate, liquidity is marginally weakening, and with key policy events approaching, the market pricing logic is changing. As we enter April, although there are seasonal expectations for strength, historical performance shows significant divergence, and the market is more likely to be driven by liquidity, position structure, and macro catalysts rather than a simple cycle repetition.

Support Repeatedly Tested: Trend Weakness Still Unresolved

Since entering a downward phase in October 2025, Bitcoin has tested the key support range for the third time. Historically, similar structures often exhibit the following pattern: after losing support, there is a rapid decline, followed by the formation of a temporary low and an attempt to build new support, but the overall trend does not truly reverse. The current market has returned to a similar position, indicating that the support below is still in a process of repeated verification, and the trend weakness has not significantly improved.

In terms of rhythm, such low-level consolidation typically does not immediately confirm direction but requires a period of fluctuation before entering the next phase of movement. Currently, the $65,000–$66,000 range has become a key watershed; if lost, the market may again enter an accelerated downward phase, with further downside potentially pointing to lower ranges.

Liquidity and Macro Dominance: Rhythm Over Direction

April has historically been viewed as a relatively strong month, but historical data shows that this pattern is not stable. Especially when Bitcoin enters April in a non-strong state, the market often exhibits phase divergence. In this round, Bitcoin enters the month in a relatively neutral state, similar to the environment before previous rises, but the short-term rhythm remains cautious.

More critically, the dominant factors in the current market have shifted from a single narrative to liquidity and macro variables. Rising oil prices are boosting inflation expectations, reinforcing the market's judgment that central banks will maintain a hawkish stance, while also supporting the dollar; these factors have historically exerted pressure on Bitcoin. Additionally, the slowdown in stablecoin growth and the sensitivity of ETF fund flows to policy signals reflect that liquidity has not yet formed a sustained upward momentum.

From a temporal structure perspective, the internal rhythm of April is also crucial: at the beginning of the month, liquidity is thin and volatility is amplified; in the middle of the month, macro data and policy expectations are densely released; by the end of the month, as the FOMC meeting concludes, the market may gradually clarify its direction. This means that compared to simply judging rises and falls, grasping the rhythm will become a more core trading variable.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently still in a relatively weak phase, and short-term downward pressure has not been fully released. Under baseline conditions, the market may continue to operate weakly in the first half of April; if the key support range is lost, the downward rhythm may accelerate further. However, from a cyclical position perspective, this round of weakness may be nearing the later stage of the downturn. As tax-related selling pressure gradually dissipates and policy expectations stabilize, the market environment is expected to marginally improve. Even if a rebound occurs, momentum is more likely to gradually manifest in the middle or later part of the month. For investors, it is not advisable to rely on simple seasonal patterns at this stage; instead, focus should be on changes in liquidity, macro variables, and position structure, waiting for clearer recovery signals to emerge while controlling risks.

Some of the views above are from BIT on Target. Contact us to obtain the complete report of BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.