VanEck Research Director: BTC derivatives protective demand reaches historical extreme range, releasing a contrarian bullish signal

VanEck's research director Matthew Sigel posted an analysis on the X platform, pointing out that the current protective demand in the Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the historical 99th percentile, which is typically seen as a "contrarian bullish signal" under extreme risk-averse market sentiment, and he judges that the market is currently suitable for establishing long positions.

The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which Matthew Sigel also manages, has risen 27% since its inception, while Bitcoin has fallen 33% during the same period, achieving lower volatility performance through diversified allocation and focusing on profitable sectors. However, he also warns that if the massive capital expenditures in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector do not yield corresponding returns, it could pose substantial pressure on the market, especially against the backdrop of concentration in S&P 500 constituent stocks.

Note: Percentile is a statistical position concept; the 99th percentile represents a relatively extreme level, while the 50th percentile represents the median level.