Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.35 trillion, with ++BTC++ accounting for 58.2%, or $1.37 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $31.57 billion, having increased by 0.06% in the last 7 days, with ++USDT++ making up 58.29%.
Among the top 200 projects on ++CoinMarketCap++, most have declined while a few have risen, including: ++BTC++ down 3.28% over 7 days, ETH up 3.8% over 7 days, SOL down 3.95% over 7 days, M up 22.36% over 7 days, and DEXE up 18.05% over 7 days.
This week, the net outflow from U.S. ++Bitcoin++ spot ETFs was $287.8 million; the net outflow from U.S. ++Ethereum++ spot ETFs was $206 million.
Market Forecast (March 30 - April 5):
The RSI index is 44.07 (neutral, lower than last week), the Fear and Greed Index is 14 (extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is 49 (neutral).
BTC: $66,000-72,500 (range trading, breakthrough requires macro catalysts)
ETH: $1,950-2,300 (relatively weak pattern continues)
SOL: $82-92 (imbalance in long and short positions creates instability)
Major Risks

1. Geopolitical black swan: U.S.-Iran negotiations break down → oil prices soar → inflation expectations worsen → risk assets under pressure
2. Long squeeze risk: For assets like SOL with severely imbalanced long and short positions, a price drop could trigger a chain liquidation
3. ETF fund reversal: If Bitcoin ETFs turn to net outflows, it will weaken the current most important support force

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

• Geopolitical risks trigger cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin falls below $69,000

This week, the cryptocurrency market experienced a sharp correction, with Bitcoin falling below the $69,000 mark on March 26, down over 3% from the overnight high, while Ethereum, SOL, and other mainstream altcoins fell 4%-5% simultaneously.
Core trigger: Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. According to The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. may consider deploying 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East; meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook publicly stated, "Inflation risks are greater due to the Iran war." This directly changed market expectations for the interest rate path— the probability of rate cuts that the market anticipated before the outbreak of war in the Middle East is declining.
Collateral impact: The U.S. stock market's Nasdaq index has fallen over 10% from its historical high into an adjustment range, and oil prices have surpassed $92 per barrel.

• Over $300 million in long positions liquidated, market sentiment falls to "extreme fear"

Accompanying the market crash, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $329.5 million in the past 24 hours, with long liquidations accounting for $287.1 million and short liquidations only $42.4 million, showing a clear seller-dominated pattern.
The CoinMarketCap Fear and Greed Index reported 29 (extreme fear) on March 27, slightly rebounding from the previous day but still at a low level. Alternative.me data showed that the index once hit an extreme level of 10.

• $14 billion Bitcoin options quarterly settlement, maximum pain point becomes "price magnet"

This Friday (March 27) marks one of the largest Bitcoin options settlements in history—approximately $14 billion in nominal value of options contracts are set to expire, accounting for a significant proportion of all open contracts.
Market analysis indicates that institutional investors previously sold a large number of call options to gain profits in a sluggish market, forcing market makers to maintain hedging balance through "buy low, sell high," resulting in prices repeatedly being pulled toward the "maximum pain point" around $75,000— the price level at which the most options contracts expire worthless.
Once this batch of contracts is settled, the mechanically driven buying and selling will disappear, and Bitcoin may face more severe volatility driven by geopolitical factors.

• AI sector suffers heavy losses, single-day decline of nearly 8%, Worldcoin leads the drop

In the overall market correction, the AI concept sector became a hard-hit area. According to SoSoValue data, the AI sector fell 7.96% in 24 hours. Among them:

• Siren (SIREN) plummeted 29.88%
• Kite (KITE) fell 16.6%
• Worldcoin (WLD) fell 8.81%, dropping below $0.30

Even more concerning for the market is that the Worldcoin team transferred 89.65 million WLD to a new address (worth about $26.17 million) on March 27 and began transferring funds to centralized exchanges. Such transfers are typically interpreted by the market as potential selling signals.
ENA (Ethena) also fell, dropping below the psychological level of $0.10, with a bearish technical outlook.

• NVIDIA faces class action lawsuit for concealing $1 billion in crypto GPU revenue

A U.S. federal judge approved the certification of a class action lawsuit against NVIDIA on March 25, with investors accusing the company of concealing over $1 billion in GPU sales revenue from crypto miners between August 2017 and November 2018, disguising it as "gaming business" revenue.
Court documents show that when the truth gradually emerged in 2018, NVIDIA's stock price plummeted 28.5% within two days. The case has undergone years of litigation, and the U.S. Supreme Court rejected NVIDIA's appeal in December 2024, clearing the way for the class action lawsuit.

• UK advances temporary ban on crypto political donations

The UK government officially advanced a temporary ban on crypto political donations on March 25, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer announcing during a session in the House of Commons, "We will act decisively to protect democracy, which includes suspending all political donations made through cryptocurrencies."
The ban stems from the Rycroft Review's independent investigation report on foreign financial interference in the UK political system. According to legislative arrangements, the ban will take effect retroactively from March 25, and existing parties and candidates must return any crypto donations received within 30 days.
Ironically, the Reform UK party will become the first UK party to accept crypto donations in May 2025, with party leader Nigel Farage announcing the acceptance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas.

• Regulatory dynamics: U.S. senator states bipartisan support for crypto market structure bill

Positive signals are being released from the regulatory front. U.S. Senator Tim Scott stated that the crypto market structure bill has received bipartisan support, and the industry's consensus is the last obstacle to legislative passage.
Meanwhile, U.S. regulators issued warnings to payment companies like Visa regarding the issue of "de-banking"; Coinbase's policy head called on U.S. lawmakers to reform cryptocurrency tax rules; and another U.S. lawmaker questioned the Kansas City Fed, demanding disclosure of details regarding the approval of Kraken's main account.

• LayerZero connects to Canton network, opening cross-chain channels for traditional financial assets

The cross-chain protocol LayerZero connected to the institutional-grade blockchain Canton Network this week, marking a substantial step towards the integration of DeFi and traditional finance.
Canton Network, developed by Digital Asset, focuses on on-chain interactions for regulated financial institutions. This integration means that the LayerZero ecosystem can support cross-chain transfers of traditional financial assets, providing a technical foundation for compliant stablecoins, bond tokenization, and other scenarios.

• **Altcoin differentiation: ** KAT soars 38% against the trend, highlighting the effect of Korean exchanges

Against the backdrop of a market-wide decline, the Katana (KAT) token surged over 38% on March 26, reaching a price of $0.0148, with trading volume skyrocketing to $297 million.
The catalyst came from the Korean market: the token was listed on both Upbit and Bithumb, opening trading pairs against the Korean won, Bitcoin, and Tether. This event once again confirms the powerful momentum of the "Korean exchange listing effect," which can drive independent market trends even in a bear market.

Macroeconomics

• On March 26, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 21 was 210,000, expected at 210,000, previous value 205,000.
• On March 27, the final value of the March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released in the U.S., with a forecast of 54 and an actual value of 53.3, below expectations.
• On March 26, according to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in April is currently reported at 6.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 93.8%.

ETF

According to statistics, from March 23 to March 27, ++U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF net outflow++ was $287.8 million; as of March 27, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $25.964 billion, currently holding $10.208 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $51.844 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $87.909 billion.
++U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net outflow++ was $206 million.

Envisioning the Future

Industry Conferences

• EthCC 9 will be held from March 30 to April 2, 2026, in Cannes, France. The Ethereum Community Conference (EthCC) is one of the largest and longest-running annual Ethereum events in Europe, focusing on technology and community development.
• Hong Kong Web3 Carnival 2026 will be held from April 20 to 23, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.

Project Progress

• The OpenSea Foundation has decided to postpone the SEA token launch event originally scheduled for March 30.
• The airdrop claim deadline for edgeX token EDGE is April 1 at 7:59.
• Core technology contributor BGD Labs of the Aave protocol announced that it will cease participation in Aave DAO after the current service cooperation ends on April 1, concluding nearly four years of development and infrastructure work on the lending platform.
• Binance will support the Dai (DAI) token swap and brand upgrade to USDS (USDS), stopping trading and removing all existing DAI spot trading pairs on April 7 at 11:00, and opening BTC/USDS, ETH/USDS, and USDS/USDT spot trading on April 9 at 16:00.

Important Events

• On April 1 at 20:15, the U.S. will announce March ADP employment numbers (in ten thousand).
• On April 2 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 (in ten thousand).
• On April 3 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the unemployment rate for March.
• On April 3 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the non-farm payrolls for March (in ten thousand).

Token Unlocking

• Jupiter (JUP) will unlock 53.47 million tokens on March 28, worth approximately $8.09 million, accounting for 1.55% of the circulating supply.
• Zora (ZORA) will unlock 165 million tokens on March 30, worth approximately $2.65 million, accounting for 3.7% of the circulating supply.
• Optimism (OP) will unlock 31.34 million tokens on March 31, worth approximately $3.46 million, accounting for 1.55% of the circulating supply.
• Sui (SUI) will unlock 42.94 million tokens on April 1, worth approximately $40.37 million, accounting for 1.1% of the circulating supply.
• EigenCloud (EIGEN) will unlock 36.82 million tokens on April 1, worth approximately $7.12 million, accounting for 7.54% of the circulating supply.
• Ethena (ENA) will unlock 40.63 million tokens on April 2, worth approximately $4.14 million, accounting for 0.52% of the circulating supply.

About Us

++Hotcoin Research++ serves as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. Through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports," we analyze market trends for you; leveraging our exclusive column " Hotcoin Selection " (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers will also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly advise investors to invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.