Bitcoin is expected to rise to $200,000 by the end of the year, driven by whales and ETFs reviving the bull market

ChainCatcher message, according to data from CryptoQuant, the apparent demand for Bitcoin is growing at a rate of approximately 62,000 coins per month. This backdrop is similar to the fourth quarters of 2020, 2021, and 2024, when prices saw significant increases. Historically, sustained demand growth often provides support for price increases. This round of expansion is primarily driven by large whales and ETFs.

The balance of large holders is increasing at an annualized rate of 331,000 Bitcoins, a trend stronger than the 255,000 in Q4 2024 and the 238,000 at the beginning of Q4 2020, and stands in stark contrast to the reduction of 197,000 in 2021 when the market was weak. ETFs may add further momentum. In Q4 2024, these products collectively purchased 213,000 Bitcoins, with holdings increasing by 71%, and are expected to further increase their positions before the end of this year. However, for demand to truly translate into a breakout, price momentum remains key. On-chain valuations indicate that the "realized price" for traders at $116,000 is an important threshold. Once the price breaks above this level, it signifies that the market has re-entered the "bull market" phase of the cyclical indicator range, potentially opening up a valuation range of $160,000 to $200,000 in the fourth quarter.